If
you were to describe a Mediterranean country that is split in two, with one
half that is more developed and tied closely to the West, the other half much
poorer and largely Muslim, and both sides separated by barbed wire, the average
American would likely think of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. However, this situation also describes
another equally intractable, but less known conflict that is occurring on the
island of Cyprus.
Cyprus
has been contested for millennia for its strategic value in the Mediterranean,
having been controlled by a series of empires including the Romans, the
Byzantines, the Ottomans, and the British.
The island gained independence from the last of these rulers, the
British, in 1960. The joy of
independence was short-lived, however, as sectarian violence between ethnic
Greeks and Turks soon rocked the island.
As with other recent sectarian conflicts around the world, this violence
quickly escalated, forcing residents of both sides out of their homes, and
began re-shuffling the once integrated island into a northern Turkish region
and a southern Greek region.
The
conflict took on a new dimension in 1974, when an attempted coup by Greek
Cypriot nationalists, who were intent on unifying the island with Greece,
prompted an invasion by the Turkish military.
Although the fighting was brief, this conflict further divided the
island, with tens of thousands of Greek Cypriots fleeing south and tens of
thousands of Turks fleeing north. After
failed negotiations, a second Turkish offensive in 1974 resulted in a ceasefire
that left 59% of the country controlled by Greek Cypriots, 36% by Turkish
Cypriots, and the rest by a United Nations buffer zone and British Sovereign
Base Areas, a legacy of British rule.
These
geographic divisions still exist today.
The country is divided into the Republic of Cyprus in the south and the
Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in the north (which is not officially
recognized by any country other than Turkey, including the United States). Given this complicated and tragic history,
what is the likelihood that Cyprus’s future will include a peaceful, diplomatic
solution, and the end to the barbed-wire separation of the island’s population?
Several
factors in recent years have complicated the negotiations process. The first was the entry of the southern
Republic of Cyprus into the European Union in 2004. Many observers had hoped that the prospect of
EU membership could be one tool to prompt Greek (and to a lesser extent
Turkish) Cypriots to the negotiating table.
By gaining EU membership before a territorial settlement had been
reached, this prospect was eliminated. (As a side note: Cyprus’s position as an
EU member state is a major impediment
to Turkish accession in the future. See
for instance: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-05/turkey-s-eu-bid-is-stalled-cyprus-to-blame-van-rompuy-says).
The
second, more recent complication has been the worldwide financial crisis, which
has been particularly harsh to the Republic of Cyprus. Given the country’s close ties to Greece,
Cypriot banks were heavily invested in Greek sovereign bonds, and are now in
need of an EU bailout. Consequently,
economics has taken the forefront in recent political discourse, with the
geo-political “Cyprus problem” taking a back seat.
Nevertheless,
just this week there were some hopeful signs.
On Sunday, February 24, Cyprus elected a new Presidential candidate,
Nicos Anastasiades (for more information, see The New York Times article on his
election: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/25/world/europe/conservative-candidate-elected-president-in-cyprus.html). Although banks and bailouts will certainly be
Mr. Anastasiades’s first priority, he has long been in favor of a loose federal
solution to the standoff known as the Annan Plan (the plan is named after
former U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan; a full version of the plan can be
found at: http://unannanplan.agrino.org/Annan_Plan_MARCH_30_2004.pdf).
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